Title: The potential influence of falling ice radiative effects on Central-Pacific El Niño variability under progressive global warming
Overview: This study examined the potential influence of falling ice radiative effects (FIRES) on the simulated surface wind stress and sea surface temperature (SST) in Central Pacific El Nino (CP-El Nino) under a warming climate. We found that the exclusion of FIREs (No snow: NOS) experiment tends to have persistently stronger westerly surface wind stress anomalies and warmer SST anomalies relative to that with FIRES (Snow on: SON). This results in warm SSTs sustained to the east associated with westerly wind anomalies, leading to longer-lasting CP-El Nino events in which the warm anomalies continue to propagate eastward driven by the persistent easterly anomalies found in NOS and CMIP5 models. Regarding El Niño diversity and the projections, the CMIP5 models have not reached a consensus. The inclusion of the FIREs would increase the confidence in simulating El Niño future behaviour.